Trade Liberalisation and Intra-household Poverty in Vietnam: a Q2 Social Impact Analysis Nicola Jones Overseas Development Institute, London, UK Email: n.jones@odi.org.uk Nguyen Ngoc Anh Development and Policies Research Center, Hanoi Nguyen Thu Hang Center for Analysis and Forecasting, Hanoi Click here to download working paper

Abstract
In November 2006 Vietnam became the latest country to accede to the World Trade Organization. While it is expected that greater liberalisation will boost economic growth and contribute to the country’s market economy transition, there are concerns about potentially negative impacts on vulnerable groups, including remote rural populations, women and children. To explore the possible impacts of Vietnam’s trade liberalisation on children in poor communities, this paper examines key mediating factors that impact child well-being and the ways trade liberalisation could affect these variables. It employs a sequential mixed methods approach: econometrics analysis of household survey data followed by complementary in-depth qualitative analysis of two key agricultural commodity sectors, aquaculture and sugarcane, expected to be significantly impacted by Vietnam’s integration into the world economy. The quantitative findings point to significant differences in child well-being outcomes based on ethnicity, household poverty status and vulnerability to declining living standards, parental education levels, and overall community poverty status. The qualitative findings highlight the importance of intra-household dynamics, familial coping strategies in the context of economic shocks, social capital, links between social exclusion and livelihood patterns, and access to social services. The paper concludes by discussing policy implications.